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Carlos Renaux vs Guarani de Palhoça — Catarinense - 2 2022

Carlos Renaux
Carlos Renaux
FT
1 – 0
Guarani de Palhoça
Guarani de Palhoça
7/31/2022Catarinense - 2Catarinense - 2 · Round 9Estádio Augusto Bauer

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Carlos Renaux51%
×Draw30%
Guarani de Palhoça18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carlos Renaux
1.22
Guarani de Palhoça
0.60

Carlos Renaux creates 103% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 23 away

creates per match

Carlos Renaux
1.05
Guarani de Palhoça
0.83

allows per match

Carlos Renaux
0.38
Guarani de Palhoça
1.39

finishing

Carlos Renaux+0.00on par
Guarani de Palhoça+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlos Renaux ↓

Guarani de Palhoça →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Carlos Renaux or draw
82%
Carlos Renaux or Guarani de Palhoça
70%
Draw or Guarani de Palhoça
49%

Winning margin

Carlos Renaux wins by 2+
23%
Guarani de Palhoça wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Carlos Renaux 1+ goals
70%
Carlos Renaux 2+ goals
34%
Carlos Renaux 3+ goals
12%
Guarani de Palhoça 1+ goals
45%
Guarani de Palhoça 2+ goals
12%
Guarani de Palhoça 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Carlos Renaux (draw refunded)
74%
Guarani de Palhoça (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlos Renaux at home — creates 1.05, concedes 0.38 · 21 matches

Guarani de Palhoça away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.39 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlos Renaux attack 1.05 + Guarani de Palhoça defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.22

Guarani de Palhoça attack 0.83 + Carlos Renaux defence 0.38 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Carlos Renaux scores more
51%
level
30%
Guarani de Palhoça scores more
18%

Carlos Renaux at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Carlos Renaux will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Catarinense - 2: Carlos Renaux 1–0 Guarani de Palhoça

Carlos Renaux beat Guarani de Palhoça 1-0 in Catarinense - 2 on July 31, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Augusto Bauer in Brusque, Santa Catarina.