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Guarani De Juazeiro vs Crato — Cearense - 2 2025

Guarani De Juazeiro
Guarani De Juazeiro
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Crato
Crato
Alan 81'
Italo Pica-Pau 29'
Unknown 9' (OG)
Unknown 90+4'
3/5/2025Cearense - 2Cearense - 2 · 1st Phase - 6Estádio Antônio Lírio Callou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Guarani De Juazeiro35%
×Draw31%
Crato34%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guarani De Juazeiro
1.01
Crato
1.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 9 away

creates per match

Guarani De Juazeiro
0.90
Crato
0.89

allows per match

Guarani De Juazeiro
1.10
Crato
1.11

finishing

Guarani De Juazeiro+0.00on par
Crato+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guarani De Juazeiro ↓

Crato →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Guarani De Juazeiro or draw
66%
Guarani De Juazeiro or Crato
69%
Draw or Crato
65%

Winning margin

Guarani De Juazeiro wins by 2+
13%
Crato wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Guarani De Juazeiro 1+ goals
64%
Guarani De Juazeiro 2+ goals
27%
Guarani De Juazeiro 3+ goals
8%
Crato 1+ goals
63%
Crato 2+ goals
26%
Crato 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Guarani De Juazeiro (draw refunded)
50%
Crato (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guarani De Juazeiro at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

Crato away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guarani De Juazeiro attack 0.90 + Crato defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.01

Crato attack 0.89 + Guarani De Juazeiro defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Guarani De Juazeiro scores more
35%
level
31%
Crato scores more
34%

Guarani De Juazeiro at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Guarani De Juazeiro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
Own goal
29'
Italo Pica-Pau
68'
Matheus Bahia
81'
Alan
90+4'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Guarani De Juazeiro vs Crato

Guarani De Juazeiro beat Crato 3-1 in Cearense - 2 on March 5, 2025.

Goals: ? (9' o.g., 90+4'), Italo Pica-Pau (29'), Alan (81').

The match was played at Estádio Antônio Lírio Callou in Barbalha, Ceará.