Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Crato vs Guarani De Juazeiro — Cearense - 2 2025

Crato
Crato
FT
1 – 0
Guarani De Juazeiro
Guarani De Juazeiro
3/22/2026Cearense - 2Cearense - 2 · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Crato51%
×Draw25%
Guarani De Juazeiro24%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crato
1.63
Guarani De Juazeiro
1.04

Crato creates 57% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 14 away

creates per match

Crato
1.83
Guarani De Juazeiro
1.07

allows per match

Crato
1.00
Guarani De Juazeiro
1.43

finishing

Crato+0.00on par
Guarani De Juazeiro+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crato ↓

Guarani De Juazeiro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Crato or draw
76%
Crato or Guarani De Juazeiro
75%
Draw or Guarani De Juazeiro
49%

Winning margin

Crato wins by 2+
27%
Guarani De Juazeiro wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Crato 1+ goals
80%
Crato 2+ goals
48%
Crato 3+ goals
22%
Guarani De Juazeiro 1+ goals
65%
Guarani De Juazeiro 2+ goals
28%
Guarani De Juazeiro 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Crato (draw refunded)
68%
Guarani De Juazeiro (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crato at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.00 · 12 matches

Guarani De Juazeiro away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crato attack 1.83 + Guarani De Juazeiro defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.63

Guarani De Juazeiro attack 1.07 + Crato defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Crato scores more
51%
level
25%
Guarani De Juazeiro scores more
24%

Crato at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Crato will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cearense - 2: Crato 1–0 Guarani De Juazeiro

Crato beat Guarani De Juazeiro 1-0 in Cearense - 2 on March 22, 2026.