Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Guarani De Juazeiro vs Cariri — Cearense - 2 2025

Guarani De Juazeiro
Guarani De Juazeiro
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cariri
Cariri
4/7/2024Cearense - 2Cearense - 2 · 2nd RoundEstádio Antônio Lírio Callou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Guarani De Juazeiro28%
×Draw41%
Cariri31%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guarani De Juazeiro
0.61
Cariri
0.65

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 5 away

creates per match

Guarani De Juazeiro
0.82
Cariri
0.20

allows per match

Guarani De Juazeiro
1.09
Cariri
0.40

finishing

Guarani De Juazeiro+0.00on par
Cariri+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Under
  • Under87
  • Over13

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

78%No
  • No78
  • Yes22

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guarani De Juazeiro ↓

Cariri →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–028%
0–118%
0–26%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–05%
2–13%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (28%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
72%28%1.5
36%64%2.5
13%87%3.5
4%96%4.5
1%99%

Double chance

Guarani De Juazeiro or draw
69%
Guarani De Juazeiro or Cariri
59%
Draw or Cariri
72%

Winning margin

Guarani De Juazeiro wins by 2+
7%
Cariri wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Guarani De Juazeiro 1+ goals
46%
Guarani De Juazeiro 2+ goals
13%
Guarani De Juazeiro 3+ goals
2%
Cariri 1+ goals
48%
Cariri 2+ goals
14%
Cariri 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Guarani De Juazeiro (draw refunded)
48%
Cariri (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
11%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guarani De Juazeiro at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

Cariri away — creates 0.20, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guarani De Juazeiro attack 0.82 + Cariri defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.61

Cariri attack 0.20 + Guarani De Juazeiro defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 31%?"

Guarani De Juazeiro scores more
28%
level
41%
Cariri scores more
31%

Cariri at 31% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 31% does not mean "Cariri will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cearense - 2: Guarani De Juazeiro 0–0 Cariri

Guarani De Juazeiro and Cariri drew 0-0 in Cearense - 2 on April 7, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Antônio Lírio Callou in Barbalha, Ceará.