Cariri 0–1 Guarani De Juazeiro: Result & Stats

Cariri

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Guarani De Juazeiro

Unknown 84'

4/18/2026

Cearense - 2 · Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Cariri40%

×Draw27%

Guarani De Juazeiro32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CaririExpected goals in this matchGuarani De Juazeiro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.14

Cariri

1.31

Guarani De Juazeiro

1.14

Cariri creates 15% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 14 away

1.20

creates per match

1.07

1.20

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Cariri

1.20

Guarani De Juazeiro

1.07

allows per match

Cariri

1.20

Guarani De Juazeiro

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cariri+0.00on par

Guarani De Juazeiro+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cariri ↓

Guarani De Juazeiro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Cariri or draw

68%

Cariri or Guarani De Juazeiro

73%

Draw or Guarani De Juazeiro

60%

Winning margin

Cariri wins by 2+

18%

Guarani De Juazeiro wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Cariri 1+ goals

73%

Cariri 2+ goals

38%

Cariri 3+ goals

14%

Guarani De Juazeiro 1+ goals

68%

Guarani De Juazeiro 2+ goals

32%

Guarani De Juazeiro 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Cariri (draw refunded)

56%

Guarani De Juazeiro (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cariri at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Guarani De Juazeiro away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cariri attack 1.20 + Guarani De Juazeiro defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.31

Guarani De Juazeiro attack 1.07 + Cariri defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Cariri scores more

40%

level

27%

Guarani De Juazeiro scores more

32%

Cariri at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Cariri will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

84'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff