Guarani De Juazeiro 2–1 Barbalha: Result & Stats

Guarani De Juazeiro

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Barbalha

Kaka 32'

Esquerdinha 9'

Romarinho 5'

5/9/2026

Cearense - 2 · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Guarani De Juazeiro40%

×Draw31%

Barbalha28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guarani De JuazeiroExpected goals in this matchBarbalha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

0.84

Guarani De Juazeiro

1.07

Barbalha

0.84

Guarani De Juazeiro creates 27% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 11 away

1.05

creates per match

0.82

0.86

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Guarani De Juazeiro

1.05

Barbalha

0.82

allows per match

Guarani De Juazeiro

0.86

Barbalha

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guarani De Juazeiro+0.00on par

Barbalha+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guarani De Juazeiro ↓

Barbalha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Guarani De Juazeiro or draw

72%

Guarani De Juazeiro or Barbalha

69%

Draw or Barbalha

60%

Winning margin

Guarani De Juazeiro wins by 2+

16%

Barbalha wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Guarani De Juazeiro 1+ goals

66%

Guarani De Juazeiro 2+ goals

29%

Guarani De Juazeiro 3+ goals

9%

Barbalha 1+ goals

57%

Barbalha 2+ goals

21%

Barbalha 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Guarani De Juazeiro (draw refunded)

59%

Barbalha (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guarani De Juazeiro at home — creates 1.05, concedes 0.86 · 21 matches

Barbalha away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guarani De Juazeiro attack 1.05 + Barbalha defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.07

Barbalha attack 0.82 + Guarani De Juazeiro defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Guarani De Juazeiro scores more

40%

level

31%

Barbalha scores more

28%

Guarani De Juazeiro at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Guarani De Juazeiro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

Romarinho

9'

Esquerdinha

32'

Kaka

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff