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Barbalha vs Guarani De Juazeiro — Cearense - 2 2025

Barbalha
Barbalha
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Guarani De Juazeiro
Guarani De Juazeiro
Dalvan 38'
4/4/2026Cearense - 2Cearense - 2 · Round 4Inaldao

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Barbalha36%
×Draw31%
Guarani De Juazeiro32%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barbalha
1.01
Guarani De Juazeiro
0.94

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 14 away

creates per match

Barbalha
0.60
Guarani De Juazeiro
1.07

allows per match

Barbalha
0.80
Guarani De Juazeiro
1.43

finishing

Barbalha+0.00on par
Guarani De Juazeiro+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barbalha ↓

Guarani De Juazeiro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Barbalha or draw
68%
Barbalha or Guarani De Juazeiro
69%
Draw or Guarani De Juazeiro
64%

Winning margin

Barbalha wins by 2+
14%
Guarani De Juazeiro wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Barbalha 1+ goals
64%
Barbalha 2+ goals
27%
Barbalha 3+ goals
8%
Guarani De Juazeiro 1+ goals
61%
Guarani De Juazeiro 2+ goals
24%
Guarani De Juazeiro 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Barbalha (draw refunded)
53%
Guarani De Juazeiro (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barbalha at home — creates 0.60, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Guarani De Juazeiro away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barbalha attack 0.60 + Guarani De Juazeiro defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.01

Guarani De Juazeiro attack 1.07 + Barbalha defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Barbalha scores more
36%
level
31%
Guarani De Juazeiro scores more
32%

Barbalha at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Barbalha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'
Dalvan

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Barbalha vs Guarani De Juazeiro

Barbalha beat Guarani De Juazeiro 1-0 in Cearense - 2 on April 4, 2026.

Goals: Dalvan (38').

The match was played at Inaldao in Barbalha.