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Guaraní de Fram vs Guairena FC — Division Intermedia 2019

Guaraní de Fram
Guaraní de Fram
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Guairena FC
Guairena FC
D. D. Benitez Samaniego 89'
F. Viveros 74', 57' (pen)
W. Riquelme 60' (pen)
C. Paredes 40'
7/2/2025Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 15Estadio Deportivo Caaguazú

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Guaraní de Fram35%
×Draw26%
Guairena FC40%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guaraní de Fram
1.29
Guairena FC
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 51 away

creates per match

Guaraní de Fram
1.47
Guairena FC
1.00

allows per match

Guaraní de Fram
1.80
Guairena FC
1.10

finishing

Guaraní de Fram+0.00on par
Guairena FC+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guaraní de Fram ↓

Guairena FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Guaraní de Fram or draw
60%
Guaraní de Fram or Guairena FC
74%
Draw or Guairena FC
65%

Winning margin

Guaraní de Fram wins by 2+
15%
Guairena FC wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Guaraní de Fram 1+ goals
72%
Guaraní de Fram 2+ goals
37%
Guaraní de Fram 3+ goals
14%
Guairena FC 1+ goals
75%
Guairena FC 2+ goals
41%
Guairena FC 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Guaraní de Fram (draw refunded)
47%
Guairena FC (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guaraní de Fram at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

Guairena FC away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.10 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guaraní de Fram attack 1.47 + Guairena FC defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.29

Guairena FC attack 1.00 + Guaraní de Fram defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Guaraní de Fram scores more
35%
level
26%
Guairena FC scores more
40%

Guairena FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Guairena FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'
C. Paredes
57'
F. ViverosPenalty
60'
W. RiquelmePenalty
74'
F. Viveros
89'
D. D. Benitez Samaniego

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Intermedia: Guaraní de Fram 3–2 Guairena FC

Guaraní de Fram beat Guairena FC 3-2 in Division Intermedia on July 2, 2025.

Goals: C. Paredes (40'), F. Viveros (57' pen, 74'), W. Riquelme (60' pen), D. D. Benitez Samaniego (89').

The match was played at Estadio Deportivo Caaguazú in Caaguazú.