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Guairena FC vs Guaraní de Fram — Division Intermedia 2019

Guairena FC
Guairena FC
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Guaraní de Fram
Guaraní de Fram
H. Portillo 89', 13'
C. Gonzalez 15'
L. Galeano 68'
10/4/2025Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 30

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Guairena FC52%
×Draw26%
Guaraní de Fram22%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guairena FC
1.54
Guaraní de Fram
0.90

Guairena FC creates 71% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 15 away

creates per match

Guairena FC
1.60
Guaraní de Fram
0.87

allows per match

Guairena FC
0.92
Guaraní de Fram
1.47

finishing

Guairena FC+0.00on par
Guaraní de Fram+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guairena FC ↓

Guaraní de Fram →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Guairena FC or draw
78%
Guairena FC or Guaraní de Fram
74%
Draw or Guaraní de Fram
48%

Winning margin

Guairena FC wins by 2+
27%
Guaraní de Fram wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Guairena FC 1+ goals
79%
Guairena FC 2+ goals
45%
Guairena FC 3+ goals
20%
Guaraní de Fram 1+ goals
59%
Guaraní de Fram 2+ goals
23%
Guaraní de Fram 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Guairena FC (draw refunded)
70%
Guaraní de Fram (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guairena FC at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.92 · 53 matches

Guaraní de Fram away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guairena FC attack 1.60 + Guaraní de Fram defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.54

Guaraní de Fram attack 0.87 + Guairena FC defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Guairena FC scores more
52%
level
26%
Guaraní de Fram scores more
22%

Guairena FC at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Guairena FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
H. Portillo
15'
C. Gonzalez
68'
L. Galeano
89'
H. Portillo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Intermedia: Guairena FC 3–1 Guaraní de Fram

Guairena FC beat Guaraní de Fram 3-1 in Division Intermedia on October 4, 2025.

Goals: H. Portillo (13', 89'), C. Gonzalez (15'), L. Galeano (68').