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Guarani Campinas vs Figueirense — Serie B 2026

Guarani Campinas
Guarani Campinas
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Figueirense
Figueirense
4/27/2019Serie BSerie B · Round 1Estádio Brinco de Ouro da Princesa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Guarani Campinas45%
×Draw29%
Figueirense26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guarani Campinas
1.26
Figueirense
0.88

Guarani Campinas creates 43% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 50 away

creates per match

Guarani Campinas
1.18
Figueirense
0.88

allows per match

Guarani Campinas
0.87
Figueirense
1.34

finishing

Guarani Campinas+0.00on par
Figueirense+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guarani Campinas ↓

Figueirense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Guarani Campinas or draw
74%
Guarani Campinas or Figueirense
71%
Draw or Figueirense
55%

Winning margin

Guarani Campinas wins by 2+
20%
Figueirense wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Guarani Campinas 1+ goals
72%
Guarani Campinas 2+ goals
36%
Guarani Campinas 3+ goals
13%
Figueirense 1+ goals
59%
Figueirense 2+ goals
22%
Figueirense 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Guarani Campinas (draw refunded)
64%
Figueirense (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guarani Campinas at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.87 · 116 matches

Figueirense away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.34 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guarani Campinas attack 1.18 + Figueirense defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.26

Figueirense attack 0.88 + Guarani Campinas defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Guarani Campinas scores more
45%
level
29%
Figueirense scores more
26%

Guarani Campinas at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Guarani Campinas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
DênisFigueirenseFigueirense · G
8.3

Match Events

8'
Fellipe Mateus
16'
Ricardinho
26'
Zé Antônio
42'
Antônio Ferreira
65'
Éder Luís← Mateus Jesus
71'
Léo Príncipe← Bruno
74'
Alípio← Fellipe Mateus
80'
Guilherme← João Diogo
82'
Anselmo Ramon← Diego Cardoso
86'
Julio Rusch← Willian Popp

Possession

46%Guarani

Shots

15Guarani

Pass accuracy

50%Guarani

Statistics

GuaraniFigueirense
Overview
46%Possession54%
15Total Shots15
5Corners4
18Fouls15
Shots
15Total Shots15
6On Target3
6Off Target8
3Blocked4
5Inside Box7
10Outside Box8
Passing
46%Possession54%
389Total Passes454
313Accurate Passes368
80%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
3Saves6
Discipline
18Fouls15
2Yellow Cards2

Serie B: Guarani Campinas 0–0 Figueirense

Guarani Campinas and Figueirense drew 0-0 in Serie B on April 27, 2019.

Figueirense controlled possession (54%) and registered 15 shots to 15.

The match was played at Estádio Brinco de Ouro da Princesa in Campinas.