Figueirense 2–2 Guarani Campinas: Result & Stats

Figueirense

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Guarani Campinas

Victor 57'

Diego Gonçalves 45+5'

Matheus Bidu 24'

Rafael Costa 2'

9/26/2020

Serie B · Round 11Estádio Orlando Scarpelli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Figueirense41%

×Draw28%

Guarani Campinas31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FigueirenseExpected goals in this matchGuarani Campinas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.06

Figueirense

1.27

Guarani Campinas

1.06

Figueirense creates 20% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 107 away

1.19

creates per match

0.91

1.22

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Figueirense

1.19

Guarani Campinas

0.91

allows per match

Figueirense

1.22

Guarani Campinas

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Figueirense+0.00on par

Guarani Campinas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Figueirense ↓

Guarani Campinas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Figueirense or draw

69%

Figueirense or Guarani Campinas

72%

Draw or Guarani Campinas

59%

Winning margin

Figueirense wins by 2+

18%

Guarani Campinas wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Figueirense 1+ goals

72%

Figueirense 2+ goals

36%

Figueirense 3+ goals

14%

Guarani Campinas 1+ goals

65%

Guarani Campinas 2+ goals

29%

Guarani Campinas 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Figueirense (draw refunded)

57%

Guarani Campinas (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Figueirense at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.22 · 37 matches

Guarani Campinas away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.34 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Figueirense attack 1.19 + Guarani Campinas defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.27

Guarani Campinas attack 0.91 + Figueirense defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Figueirense scores more

41%

level

28%

Guarani Campinas scores more

31%

Figueirense at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Figueirense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

Rafael Costa

Guarani Campinas · F

8.2

Match Events

2'

Rafael Costa↳ Bruno Sávio

24'

Matheus Bidu↳ Rafael Costa

27'

Rafael Magrão← Jefferson

45+5'

Diego Gonçalves↳ Sanchez

46'

Murilo Rangel

57'

Victor

59'

Renan← Bruno Sávio

59'

Alemão Junior← Rafael Costa

59'

Arthur Rezende← Murilo Rangel

66'

Arouca← Dudu

68'

Elyeser← Patrick

75'

Paulo Ricardo← Victor

75'

Everton← Sanchez

76'

Mateus Brunetti← Geovane Santos

89'

Cristovam

90'

Everton Santos

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FigueirenseGuarani

Overview

52%Possession48%

9Total Shots11

3Corners4

10Fouls21

Shots

9Total Shots11

4On Target4

3Off Target4

2Blocked3

4Inside Box3

5Outside Box8

Passing

52%Possession48%

462Total Passes411

381Accurate Passes337

82%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

10Fouls21

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides2

Serie B: Figueirense 2–2 Guarani Campinas

Figueirense and Guarani Campinas drew 2-2 in Serie B on September 26, 2020.

Goals: Rafael Costa (2'), Matheus Bidu (24'), Diego Gonçalves (45+5'), Victor (57').

Figueirense controlled possession (52%) and registered 9 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estádio Orlando Scarpelli in Florianópolis, Santa Catarina.

Figueirense vs Guarani Campinas — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Figueirense 2–2 Guarani Campinas