Guarani Campinas 1–1 Criciuma: Result & Stats

Guarani Campinas

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Criciuma

11/14/2023

Serie B · Round 36Estádio Brinco de Ouro da Princesa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Guarani Campinas43%

×Draw30%

Criciuma27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guarani CampinasExpected goals in this matchCriciuma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

0.87

Guarani Campinas

1.18

Criciuma

0.87

Guarani Campinas creates 36% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 105 away

1.20

creates per match

0.86

0.88

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Guarani Campinas

1.20

Criciuma

0.86

allows per match

Guarani Campinas

0.88

Criciuma

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guarani Campinas+0.00on par

Criciuma+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guarani Campinas ↓

Criciuma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Guarani Campinas or draw

73%

Guarani Campinas or Criciuma

70%

Draw or Criciuma

57%

Winning margin

Guarani Campinas wins by 2+

19%

Criciuma wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Guarani Campinas 1+ goals

69%

Guarani Campinas 2+ goals

33%

Guarani Campinas 3+ goals

12%

Criciuma 1+ goals

58%

Criciuma 2+ goals

22%

Criciuma 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Guarani Campinas (draw refunded)

61%

Criciuma (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guarani Campinas at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.88 · 133 matches

Criciuma away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.16 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guarani Campinas attack 1.20 + Criciuma defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.18

Criciuma attack 0.86 + Guarani Campinas defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Guarani Campinas scores more

43%

level

30%

Criciuma scores more

27%

Guarani Campinas at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Guarani Campinas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff