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Criciuma vs Guarani Campinas — Serie B 2026

Criciuma
Criciuma
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Guarani Campinas
Guarani Campinas
7/13/2023Serie BSerie B · Round 17Estádio Heriberto Hülse

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Criciuma49%
×Draw28%
Guarani Campinas23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Criciuma
1.33
Guarani Campinas
0.80

Criciuma creates 66% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 133 away

creates per match

Criciuma
1.37
Guarani Campinas
0.86

allows per match

Criciuma
0.75
Guarani Campinas
1.28

finishing

Criciuma+0.00on par
Guarani Campinas+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Criciuma ↓

Guarani Campinas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Criciuma or draw
77%
Criciuma or Guarani Campinas
72%
Draw or Guarani Campinas
51%

Winning margin

Criciuma wins by 2+
23%
Guarani Campinas wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Criciuma 1+ goals
74%
Criciuma 2+ goals
38%
Criciuma 3+ goals
15%
Guarani Campinas 1+ goals
55%
Guarani Campinas 2+ goals
19%
Guarani Campinas 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Criciuma (draw refunded)
69%
Guarani Campinas (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Criciuma at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.75 · 104 matches

Guarani Campinas away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.28 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Criciuma attack 1.37 + Guarani Campinas defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.33

Guarani Campinas attack 0.86 + Criciuma defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Criciuma scores more
49%
level
28%
Guarani Campinas scores more
23%

Criciuma at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Criciuma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Criciuma vs Guarani Campinas

Criciuma and Guarani Campinas drew 1-1 in Serie B on July 13, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Heriberto Hülse in Criciúma, Santa Catarina.