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Guarani Campinas vs Brusque — Serie B 2026

Guarani Campinas
Guarani Campinas
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Brusque
Brusque
7/28/2024Serie BSerie B · Round 18Estádio Brinco de Ouro da Princesa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Guarani Campinas46%
×Draw31%
Brusque23%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guarani Campinas
1.13
Brusque
0.71

Guarani Campinas creates 59% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

creates per match

Guarani Campinas
0.83
Brusque
0.43

allows per match

Guarani Campinas
1.00
Brusque
1.43

finishing

Guarani Campinas+0.00on par
Brusque+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guarani Campinas ↓

Brusque →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Guarani Campinas or draw
77%
Guarani Campinas or Brusque
69%
Draw or Brusque
54%

Winning margin

Guarani Campinas wins by 2+
19%
Brusque wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Guarani Campinas 1+ goals
68%
Guarani Campinas 2+ goals
31%
Guarani Campinas 3+ goals
11%
Brusque 1+ goals
51%
Brusque 2+ goals
16%
Brusque 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Guarani Campinas (draw refunded)
66%
Brusque (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guarani Campinas at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Brusque away — creates 0.43, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guarani Campinas attack 0.83 + Brusque defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.13

Brusque attack 0.43 + Guarani Campinas defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Guarani Campinas scores more
46%
level
31%
Brusque scores more
23%

Guarani Campinas at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Guarani Campinas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie B: Guarani Campinas 1–0 Brusque

Guarani Campinas beat Brusque 1-0 in Serie B on July 28, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Brinco de Ouro da Princesa in Campinas, São Paulo.