Brusque 1–0 Guarani Campinas: Result & Stats

Brusque

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Guarani Campinas

4/20/2025

Serie C · Round 2Estádio Augusto Bauer

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Brusque41%

×Draw26%

Guarani Campinas33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BrusqueExpected goals in this matchGuarani Campinas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.25

Brusque

1.42

Guarani Campinas

1.25

Brusque creates 14% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 19 away

1.46

creates per match

1.42

1.08

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Brusque

1.46

Guarani Campinas

1.42

allows per match

Brusque

1.08

Guarani Campinas

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brusque+0.00on par

Guarani Campinas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brusque ↓

Guarani Campinas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Brusque or draw

67%

Brusque or Guarani Campinas

74%

Draw or Guarani Campinas

59%

Winning margin

Brusque wins by 2+

19%

Guarani Campinas wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Brusque 1+ goals

76%

Brusque 2+ goals

41%

Brusque 3+ goals

17%

Guarani Campinas 1+ goals

71%

Guarani Campinas 2+ goals

36%

Guarani Campinas 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Brusque (draw refunded)

55%

Guarani Campinas (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brusque at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.08 · 24 matches

Guarani Campinas away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brusque attack 1.46 + Guarani Campinas defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.42

Guarani Campinas attack 1.42 + Brusque defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Brusque scores more

41%

level

26%

Guarani Campinas scores more

33%

Brusque at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Brusque will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff