Guarani Campinas 0–1 America Mineiro

Guarani Campinas

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

America Mineiro

Vitão 80'

11/23/2019

Serie B · Round 37Estádio Brinco de Ouro da Princesa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Guarani Campinas41%

×Draw30%

America Mineiro29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guarani CampinasExpected goals in this matchAmerica Mineiro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

0.91

Guarani Campinas

1.14

America Mineiro

0.91

Guarani Campinas creates 25% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 18 away

0.97

creates per match

0.92

0.90

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Guarani Campinas

0.97

America Mineiro

0.92

allows per match

Guarani Campinas

0.90

America Mineiro

1.31

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

Guarani Campinas-0.26scores less

America Mineiro-0.25scores less

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guarani Campinas ↓

America Mineiro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Guarani Campinas or draw

71%

Guarani Campinas or America Mineiro

70%

Draw or America Mineiro

59%

Winning margin

Guarani Campinas wins by 2+

17%

America Mineiro wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Guarani Campinas 1+ goals

68%

Guarani Campinas 2+ goals

32%

Guarani Campinas 3+ goals

11%

America Mineiro 1+ goals

60%

America Mineiro 2+ goals

23%

America Mineiro 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Guarani Campinas (draw refunded)

59%

America Mineiro (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guarani Campinas at home — creates 0.97, concedes 0.90 · 7 matches

America Mineiro away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.31 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guarani Campinas attack 0.97 + America Mineiro defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.14

America Mineiro attack 0.92 + Guarani Campinas defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Guarani Campinas scores more

41%

level

30%

America Mineiro scores more

29%

Guarani Campinas at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Guarani Campinas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

Sávio

America Mineiro · D

7.7

Match Events

28'

50'

53'

60'

65'

Renan← Matheus Alvarenga

67'

Pedro Acorsi

71'

Matheus Bidu

74'

Vitão

74'

Marcelo Toscano← Flavio

77'

79'

80'

83'

83'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GuaraniAmerica

Overview

51%Possession49%

6Total Shots16

1Corners4

17Fouls13

Shots

6Total Shots16

0On Target4

5Off Target8

1Blocked4

3Inside Box9

3Outside Box7

Passing

51%Possession49%

464Total Passes435

371Accurate Passes349

80%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

Discipline

17Fouls13

4Yellow Cards3

2Offsides1

Serie B: Guarani Campinas 0–1 America Mineiro

America Mineiro beat Guarani Campinas 1-0 in Serie B on November 23, 2019.

Goals: Vitão (80').

Guarani Campinas controlled possession (51%) and registered 6 shots to 16.

The match was played at Estádio Brinco de Ouro da Princesa in Campinas.

Guarani Campinas vs America Mineiro — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Guarani Campinas 0–1 America Mineiro