America Mineiro 0–0 Guarani Campinas

America Mineiro

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Guarani Campinas

10/3/2020

Serie B · Round 13Estádio Raimundo Sampaio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

America Mineiro44%

×Draw27%

Guarani Campinas29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

America MineiroExpected goals in this matchGuarani Campinas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.06

America Mineiro

1.36

Guarani Campinas

1.06

America Mineiro creates 28% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 12 away

1.48

creates per match

0.88

1.25

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

America Mineiro

1.48

Guarani Campinas

0.88

allows per match

America Mineiro

1.25

Guarani Campinas

1.25

-0.28scores less than expected

finishing

+0.04on par

finishing

America Mineiro-0.28scores less

Guarani Campinas+0.04on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America Mineiro ↓

Guarani Campinas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

America Mineiro or draw

71%

America Mineiro or Guarani Campinas

73%

Draw or Guarani Campinas

56%

Winning margin

America Mineiro wins by 2+

20%

Guarani Campinas wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

America Mineiro 1+ goals

74%

America Mineiro 2+ goals

39%

America Mineiro 3+ goals

16%

Guarani Campinas 1+ goals

65%

Guarani Campinas 2+ goals

29%

Guarani Campinas 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

America Mineiro (draw refunded)

60%

Guarani Campinas (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America Mineiro at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.25 · 20 matches

Guarani Campinas away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America Mineiro attack 1.48 + Guarani Campinas defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.36

Guarani Campinas attack 0.88 + America Mineiro defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

America Mineiro scores more

44%

level

27%

Guarani Campinas scores more

29%

America Mineiro at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "America Mineiro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

Gabriel

Guarani Campinas · G

8.2

Match Events

19'

Alan Souza← Bruno Sávio

46'

Giovanny← Alan Souza

51'

Renan← Rafael Costa

60'

Neto Berola← Felipe Azevedo

61'

Guilherme← Léo Passos

61'

Lucas Santos← Arthur Rezende

61'

Deivid← Murilo Rangel

70'

Geovane← Juninho

70'

Felipe Augusto← Ademir

83'

Anderson

84'

Lucas Abreu

86'

Marcelo Toscano← Alê

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AmericaGuarani

Overview

45%Possession55%

21Total Shots14

8Corners6

14Fouls14

Shots

21Total Shots14

5On Target2

12Off Target2

4Blocked10

10Inside Box0

11Outside Box14

Passing

45%Possession55%

382Total Passes466

317Accurate Passes395

83%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

14Fouls14

1Yellow Cards1

3Offsides2