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CA River Plate vs Rampla Juniors — League #270 2026

CA River Plate
CA River Plate
FT
3 – 4
HT: 1 – 0
Rampla Juniors
Rampla Juniors
F. Ospitaleche 55'
L. Urruti 46'
M. Jones 37'
M. Cóccaro 90', 86'
D. Martiñones 79', 49'
8/26/2018League #270League #270 · Round 6Parque Federico Omar Saroldi (Montevideo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

CA River Plate48%
×Draw21%
Rampla Juniors31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CA River Plate
2.10
Rampla Juniors
1.64

CA River Plate creates 28% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 18 away

creates per match

CA River Plate
2.10
Rampla Juniors
1.17

allows per match

CA River Plate
2.10
Rampla Juniors
2.11

finishing

CA River Plate+0.00on par
Rampla Juniors+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CA River Plate ↓

Rampla Juniors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

CA River Plate or draw
69%
CA River Plate or Rampla Juniors
79%
Draw or Rampla Juniors
52%

Winning margin

CA River Plate wins by 2+
28%
Rampla Juniors wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

CA River Plate 1+ goals
88%
CA River Plate 2+ goals
62%
CA River Plate 3+ goals
35%
Rampla Juniors 1+ goals
81%
Rampla Juniors 2+ goals
49%
Rampla Juniors 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

CA River Plate (draw refunded)
61%
Rampla Juniors (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CA River Plate at home — creates 2.10, concedes 2.10 · 10 matches

Rampla Juniors away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.11 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CA River Plate attack 2.10 + Rampla Juniors defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.10

Rampla Juniors attack 1.17 + CA River Plate defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

CA River Plate scores more
48%
level
21%
Rampla Juniors scores more
31%

CA River Plate at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "CA River Plate will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'
M. Jones
46'
L. Urruti
49'
D. Martiñones
55'
F. Ospitaleche
79'
D. Martiñones
86'
M. Cóccaro
90'
M. Cóccaro

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #270: CA River Plate 3–4 Rampla Juniors

Rampla Juniors beat CA River Plate 4-3 in League #270 on August 26, 2018.

Goals: M. Jones (37'), L. Urruti (46'), D. Martiñones (49', 79'), F. Ospitaleche (55'), M. Cóccaro (86', 90').

The match was played at Parque Federico Omar Saroldi (Montevideo).