CA River Plate 2–1 Rampla Juniors: Result & Stats

CA River Plate

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Rampla Juniors

M. Alonso 85'

S. Píriz 47'

P. Pereira 90' (pen)

5/18/2019

Primera División - Apertura · Apertura - 13Parque Federico Omar Saroldi (Montevideo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

CA River Plate53%

×Draw23%

Rampla Juniors24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CA River PlateExpected goals in this matchRampla Juniors

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.11

CA River Plate

1.79

Rampla Juniors

1.11

CA River Plate creates 61% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 33 away

1.56

creates per match

1.00

1.23

allows per match

2.03

creates per match

CA River Plate

1.56

Rampla Juniors

1.00

allows per match

CA River Plate

1.23

Rampla Juniors

2.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CA River Plate+0.00on par

Rampla Juniors+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CA River Plate ↓

Rampla Juniors →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

CA River Plate or draw

76%

CA River Plate or Rampla Juniors

77%

Draw or Rampla Juniors

47%

Winning margin

CA River Plate wins by 2+

30%

Rampla Juniors wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

CA River Plate 1+ goals

83%

CA River Plate 2+ goals

53%

CA River Plate 3+ goals

26%

Rampla Juniors 1+ goals

67%

Rampla Juniors 2+ goals

30%

Rampla Juniors 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

CA River Plate (draw refunded)

69%

Rampla Juniors (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CA River Plate at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.23 · 71 matches

Rampla Juniors away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.03 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CA River Plate attack 1.56 + Rampla Juniors defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.79

Rampla Juniors attack 1.00 + CA River Plate defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

CA River Plate scores more

53%

level

23%

Rampla Juniors scores more

24%

CA River Plate at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "CA River Plate will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

22'

23'

32'

J. Olivera← G. Leyes

38'

45'

46'

J. Plada← F. Ospitaleche

47'

S. Píriz

55'

M. Alonso← P. Neris

64'

65'

P. Pereira← M. Saavedra

70'

E. Martinez

73'

C. Servetti← D. Vargas

79'

85'

M. Alonso

89'

90'

P. PereiraPenalty

CA

Rampla

25

3

11

16

20

10

15

29

7

23

▼

Saavedra

8

▼

1

22

14

2

26

20

⚽

Píriz

7

Rodríguez

5

▼

Ospitalec

11

Urruti

28

▼

Neris

9

▼

Leyes

Manager: J. Giordano

32'▲J. Olivera←▼G. Leyes

46'▲J. Plada←▼F. Ospitaleche

55'▲M. Alonso←▼P. Neris

CA River Plate substitutes

19Olivera15Plada23Alonso3Silva12Tinaglini16Olivera29Vigo

Manager: R. Martínez

65'▲P. Pereira←▼M. Saavedra

73'▲C. Servetti←▼D. Vargas

Rampla Juniors substitutes

19Pereira27Servetti6Roselló12Samurio13Cándido14Gorrostorrazo2Panzariello

Match Recap: CA River Plate vs Rampla Juniors

CA River Plate beat Rampla Juniors 2-1 in Primera División - Apertura on May 18, 2019.

Goals: S. Píriz (47'), M. Alonso (85'), P. Pereira (90' pen).

The match was played at Parque Federico Omar Saroldi (Montevideo).

CA River Plate vs Rampla Juniors — Primera División - Apertura 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: CA River Plate vs Rampla Juniors