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Guangzhou R&F vs Shandong Luneng — Super League 2018

Guangzhou R&F
Guangzhou R&F
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Shandong Luneng
Shandong Luneng
6/12/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 3Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Guangzhou R&F30%
×Draw22%
Shandong Luneng47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guangzhou R&F
1.52
Shandong Luneng
1.94

Shandong Luneng creates 28% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 122 away

creates per match

Guangzhou R&F
1.59
Shandong Luneng
1.77

allows per match

Guangzhou R&F
2.10
Shandong Luneng
1.44

finishing

Guangzhou R&F+0.00on par
Shandong Luneng+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guangzhou R&F ↓

Shandong Luneng →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Guangzhou R&F or draw
53%
Guangzhou R&F or Shandong Luneng
78%
Draw or Shandong Luneng
70%

Winning margin

Guangzhou R&F wins by 2+
14%
Shandong Luneng wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Guangzhou R&F 1+ goals
78%
Guangzhou R&F 2+ goals
45%
Guangzhou R&F 3+ goals
20%
Shandong Luneng 1+ goals
86%
Shandong Luneng 2+ goals
58%
Shandong Luneng 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Guangzhou R&F (draw refunded)
39%
Shandong Luneng (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guangzhou R&F at home — creates 1.59, concedes 2.10 · 68 matches

Shandong Luneng away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.44 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guangzhou R&F attack 1.59 + Shandong Luneng defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.52

Shandong Luneng attack 1.77 + Guangzhou R&F defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Guangzhou R&F scores more
30%
level
22%
Shandong Luneng scores more
47%

Shandong Luneng at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Shandong Luneng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Guangzhou R&F vs Shandong Luneng

Shandong Luneng beat Guangzhou R&F 1-0 in Super League on June 12, 2022.

The match was played at Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2 in Haikou.