Guangzhou R&F 2–2 Shandong Luneng: Result & Stats

Guangzhou R&F

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Shandong Luneng

Renatinho 90+3'

R. Zivkovic 90+2'

Roger Guedes 32', 28'

12/2/2020

FA Cup · Quarter-finalsSuzhou City Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Guangzhou R&F33%

×Draw21%

Shandong Luneng46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guangzhou R&FExpected goals in this matchShandong Luneng

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

2.17

Guangzhou R&F

1.82

Shandong Luneng

2.17

Shandong Luneng creates 19% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 20 away

3.00

creates per match

3.00

1.33

allows per match

0.65

creates per match

Guangzhou R&F

3.00

Shandong Luneng

3.00

allows per match

Guangzhou R&F

1.33

Shandong Luneng

0.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guangzhou R&F+0.00on par

Shandong Luneng+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guangzhou R&F ↓

Shandong Luneng →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Guangzhou R&F or draw

54%

Guangzhou R&F or Shandong Luneng

79%

Draw or Shandong Luneng

67%

Winning margin

Guangzhou R&F wins by 2+

17%

Shandong Luneng wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Guangzhou R&F 1+ goals

84%

Guangzhou R&F 2+ goals

54%

Guangzhou R&F 3+ goals

27%

Shandong Luneng 1+ goals

89%

Shandong Luneng 2+ goals

64%

Shandong Luneng 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Guangzhou R&F (draw refunded)

42%

Shandong Luneng (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guangzhou R&F at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Shandong Luneng away — creates 3.00, concedes 0.65 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guangzhou R&F attack 3.00 + Shandong Luneng defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 1.82

Shandong Luneng attack 3.00 + Guangzhou R&F defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Guangzhou R&F scores more

33%

level

21%

Shandong Luneng scores more

46%

Shandong Luneng at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Shandong Luneng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

28'

32'

55'

68'

Liu Junshuai← Hao Junmin

70'

Wen Yongjun← Jiang Jihong

86'

Guo Tianyu← Duan Liuyu

86'

Chen Kerui← Roger Guedes

90+2'

R. Zivkovic

90+3'

Renatinho

Guangzhou

Shandong

18

5

6

11

25

22

▼

Junmin

10

Moisés

17

Xinghan

9

▼

Pellè

23

⚽2

▼

Guedes

36

▼

Liuyu

22

Jiaqi

19

▼

20

18

36

15

21

13

11

⚽

Renatinho

29

Wenjie

9

⚽

Zivkovic

Manager: G. van Bronckhorst

70'▲Wen Yongjun←▼Jiang Jihong

Guangzhou R&F substitutes

37Yongjun1Yuelei3Tošić4Gong8Dembélé17Yuncheng23Lin28Chengru30Peng32Zhizhao41Jinliang42Huapeng

Manager: Hao Wei

55'▲Liu Binbin←▼G. Pellè

68'▲Liu Junshuai←▼Hao Junmin

86'▲Guo Tianyu←▼Duan Liuyu

86'▲Chen Kerui←▼Roger Guedes

Shandong Luneng substitutes

21Binbin3Junshuai7Tianyu28Kerui1Guanxi4Kádár14Dalei15Tianyu32Xin34Cong35Lin39Long

Match Recap: Guangzhou R&F vs Shandong Luneng

Guangzhou R&F and Shandong Luneng drew 2-2 in FA Cup on December 2, 2020.

Goals: Roger Guedes (28', 32'), R. Zivkovic (90+2'), Renatinho (90+3').

The match was played at Suzhou City Sports Centre in Suzhou.

Guangzhou R&F vs Shandong Luneng — FA Cup 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Guangzhou R&F vs Shandong Luneng