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Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Qingdao Youth Island — League One 2018

Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Qingdao Youth Island
Qingdao Youth Island
10/28/2023League OneLeague One · Round 29Yuexiushan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Guangzhou Evergrande FC36%
×Draw28%
Qingdao Youth Island36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.15
Qingdao Youth Island
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 32 away

creates per match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.17
Qingdao Youth Island
1.19

allows per match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.13
Qingdao Youth Island
1.13

finishing

Guangzhou Evergrande FC+0.00on par
Qingdao Youth Island+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guangzhou Evergrande FC ↓

Qingdao Youth Island →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Guangzhou Evergrande FC or draw
64%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC or Qingdao Youth Island
72%
Draw or Qingdao Youth Island
64%

Winning margin

Guangzhou Evergrande FC wins by 2+
15%
Qingdao Youth Island wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1+ goals
68%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2+ goals
32%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 3+ goals
11%
Qingdao Youth Island 1+ goals
69%
Qingdao Youth Island 2+ goals
32%
Qingdao Youth Island 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Guangzhou Evergrande FC (draw refunded)
50%
Qingdao Youth Island (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guangzhou Evergrande FC at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.13 · 30 matches

Qingdao Youth Island away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.13 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 1.17 + Qingdao Youth Island defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.15

Qingdao Youth Island attack 1.19 + Guangzhou Evergrande FC defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Guangzhou Evergrande FC scores more
36%
level
28%
Qingdao Youth Island scores more
36%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Guangzhou Evergrande FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Guangzhou Evergrande FC 0–2 Qingdao Youth Island

Qingdao Youth Island beat Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2-0 in League One on October 28, 2023.

The match was played at Yuexiushan Stadium in Canton.