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Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Qingdao Youth Island — FA Cup 2019

Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Qingdao Youth Island
Qingdao Youth Island
10/13/2021FA CupFA Cup · 1st RoundShandong Provincial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Guangzhou Evergrande FC31%
×Draw26%
Qingdao Youth Island43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.21
Qingdao Youth Island
1.48

Qingdao Youth Island creates 22% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.43
Qingdao Youth Island
1.67

allows per match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.29
Qingdao Youth Island
1.00

finishing

Guangzhou Evergrande FC+0.00on par
Qingdao Youth Island+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guangzhou Evergrande FC ↓

Qingdao Youth Island →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Guangzhou Evergrande FC or draw
57%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC or Qingdao Youth Island
74%
Draw or Qingdao Youth Island
69%

Winning margin

Guangzhou Evergrande FC wins by 2+
13%
Qingdao Youth Island wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1+ goals
70%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2+ goals
34%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 3+ goals
12%
Qingdao Youth Island 1+ goals
77%
Qingdao Youth Island 2+ goals
43%
Qingdao Youth Island 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Guangzhou Evergrande FC (draw refunded)
42%
Qingdao Youth Island (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guangzhou Evergrande FC at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Qingdao Youth Island away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 1.43 + Qingdao Youth Island defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.21

Qingdao Youth Island attack 1.67 + Guangzhou Evergrande FC defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Guangzhou Evergrande FC scores more
31%
level
26%
Qingdao Youth Island scores more
43%

Qingdao Youth Island at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Qingdao Youth Island will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Qingdao Youth Island

Qingdao Youth Island beat Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1-0 in FA Cup on October 13, 2021.

The match was played at Shandong Provincial Stadium in Ji'nan.