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Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Chongqing Tongliang Long — League One 2018

Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Chongqing Tongliang Long
Chongqing Tongliang Long
9/1/2024League OneLeague One · Round 21Huadu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Guangzhou Evergrande FC33%
×Draw26%
Chongqing Tongliang Long41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.20
Chongqing Tongliang Long
1.38

Chongqing Tongliang Long creates 15% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 30 away

creates per match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.17
Chongqing Tongliang Long
1.63

allows per match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.13
Chongqing Tongliang Long
1.23

finishing

Guangzhou Evergrande FC+0.00on par
Chongqing Tongliang Long+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guangzhou Evergrande FC ↓

Chongqing Tongliang Long →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Guangzhou Evergrande FC or draw
59%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC or Chongqing Tongliang Long
74%
Draw or Chongqing Tongliang Long
67%

Winning margin

Guangzhou Evergrande FC wins by 2+
14%
Chongqing Tongliang Long wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1+ goals
70%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2+ goals
34%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 3+ goals
12%
Chongqing Tongliang Long 1+ goals
75%
Chongqing Tongliang Long 2+ goals
40%
Chongqing Tongliang Long 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Guangzhou Evergrande FC (draw refunded)
44%
Chongqing Tongliang Long (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guangzhou Evergrande FC at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.13 · 30 matches

Chongqing Tongliang Long away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.23 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 1.17 + Chongqing Tongliang Long defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.20

Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 1.63 + Guangzhou Evergrande FC defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Guangzhou Evergrande FC scores more
33%
level
26%
Chongqing Tongliang Long scores more
41%

Chongqing Tongliang Long at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Chongqing Tongliang Long will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Chongqing Tongliang Long

Guangzhou Evergrande FC beat Chongqing Tongliang Long 2-0 in League One on September 1, 2024.

The match was played at Huadu Stadium in Guangzhou.