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Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC — League One 2018

Chongqing Tongliang Long
Chongqing Tongliang Long
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
4/14/2024League OneLeague One · Round 6Tongliang Long Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Chongqing Tongliang Long45%
×Draw26%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chongqing Tongliang Long
1.48
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.12

Chongqing Tongliang Long creates 32% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 30 away

creates per match

Chongqing Tongliang Long
1.50
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.57

allows per match

Chongqing Tongliang Long
0.67
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.47

finishing

Chongqing Tongliang Long+0.00on par
Guangzhou Evergrande FC+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chongqing Tongliang Long ↓

Guangzhou Evergrande FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Chongqing Tongliang Long or draw
71%
Chongqing Tongliang Long or Guangzhou Evergrande FC
74%
Draw or Guangzhou Evergrande FC
55%

Winning margin

Chongqing Tongliang Long wins by 2+
22%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Chongqing Tongliang Long 1+ goals
77%
Chongqing Tongliang Long 2+ goals
43%
Chongqing Tongliang Long 3+ goals
19%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1+ goals
67%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2+ goals
31%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Chongqing Tongliang Long (draw refunded)
61%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chongqing Tongliang Long at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.67 · 30 matches

Guangzhou Evergrande FC away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.47 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 1.50 + Guangzhou Evergrande FC defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.48

Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 1.57 + Chongqing Tongliang Long defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Chongqing Tongliang Long scores more
45%
level
26%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC scores more
29%

Chongqing Tongliang Long at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Chongqing Tongliang Long will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Chongqing Tongliang Long 2–1 Guangzhou Evergrande FC

Chongqing Tongliang Long beat Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2-1 in League One on April 14, 2024.

The match was played at Tongliang Long Stadium in Chongqing.