Guangzhou Evergrande FC 0–2 Cerezo Osaka

Guangzhou Evergrande FC

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Cerezo Osaka

6/24/2021

AFC Champions League · Group J - 1Chang Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Guangzhou Evergrande FC25%

×Draw25%

Cerezo Osaka50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guangzhou Evergrande FCExpected goals in this matchCerezo Osaka

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

1.58

Guangzhou Evergrande FC

1.05

Cerezo Osaka

1.58

Cerezo Osaka creates 50% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 6 away

1.28

creates per match

1.17

2.00

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC

1.28

Cerezo Osaka

1.17

allows per match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC

2.00

Cerezo Osaka

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guangzhou Evergrande FC+0.00on par

Cerezo Osaka+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guangzhou Evergrande FC ↓

Cerezo Osaka →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Guangzhou Evergrande FC or draw

50%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC or Cerezo Osaka

75%

Draw or Cerezo Osaka

75%

Winning margin

Guangzhou Evergrande FC wins by 2+

9%

Cerezo Osaka wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1+ goals

65%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2+ goals

28%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC 3+ goals

9%

Cerezo Osaka 1+ goals

79%

Cerezo Osaka 2+ goals

47%

Cerezo Osaka 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Guangzhou Evergrande FC (draw refunded)

34%

Cerezo Osaka (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guangzhou Evergrande FC at home — creates 1.28, concedes 2.00 · 18 matches

Cerezo Osaka away — creates 1.17, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 1.28 + Cerezo Osaka defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.05

Cerezo Osaka attack 1.17 + Guangzhou Evergrande FC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Guangzhou Evergrande FC scores more

25%

level

25%

Cerezo Osaka scores more

50%

Cerezo Osaka at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Cerezo Osaka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff