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Cerezo Osaka vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC — AFC Champions League 2018

Cerezo Osaka
Cerezo Osaka
FT
5 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
7/6/2021AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group J - 5Chang Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Cerezo Osaka61%
×Draw24%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cerezo Osaka
1.65
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
0.67

Cerezo Osaka creates 146% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 17 away

creates per match

Cerezo Osaka
1.71
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
0.47

allows per match

Cerezo Osaka
0.86
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.59

finishing

Cerezo Osaka+0.00on par
Guangzhou Evergrande FC+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cerezo Osaka ↓

Guangzhou Evergrande FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Cerezo Osaka or draw
85%
Cerezo Osaka or Guangzhou Evergrande FC
76%
Draw or Guangzhou Evergrande FC
39%

Winning margin

Cerezo Osaka wins by 2+
34%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Cerezo Osaka 1+ goals
81%
Cerezo Osaka 2+ goals
49%
Cerezo Osaka 3+ goals
23%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1+ goals
49%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2+ goals
15%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Cerezo Osaka (draw refunded)
80%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cerezo Osaka at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

Guangzhou Evergrande FC away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cerezo Osaka attack 1.71 + Guangzhou Evergrande FC defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.65

Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 0.47 + Cerezo Osaka defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Cerezo Osaka scores more
61%
level
24%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC scores more
15%

Cerezo Osaka at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Cerezo Osaka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Champions League: Cerezo Osaka 5–0 Guangzhou Evergrande FC

Cerezo Osaka beat Guangzhou Evergrande FC 5-0 in AFC Champions League on July 6, 2021.

The match was played at Chang Arena in Buriram.