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Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Beijing Renhe — Super League 2018

Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
FT
6 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Beijing Renhe
Beijing Renhe
10/20/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Round 26Tianhe Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Guangzhou Evergrande FC62%
×Draw21%
Beijing Renhe17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guangzhou Evergrande FC
2.00
Beijing Renhe
0.92

Guangzhou Evergrande FC creates 117% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 30 away

creates per match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC
2.04
Beijing Renhe
0.80

allows per match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.03
Beijing Renhe
1.97

finishing

Guangzhou Evergrande FC+0.00on par
Beijing Renhe+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guangzhou Evergrande FC ↓

Beijing Renhe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Guangzhou Evergrande FC or draw
83%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC or Beijing Renhe
79%
Draw or Beijing Renhe
38%

Winning margin

Guangzhou Evergrande FC wins by 2+
38%
Beijing Renhe wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1+ goals
86%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2+ goals
59%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 3+ goals
32%
Beijing Renhe 1+ goals
60%
Beijing Renhe 2+ goals
23%
Beijing Renhe 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Guangzhou Evergrande FC (draw refunded)
79%
Beijing Renhe (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guangzhou Evergrande FC at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.03 · 68 matches

Beijing Renhe away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.97 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 2.04 + Beijing Renhe defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 2.00

Beijing Renhe attack 0.80 + Guangzhou Evergrande FC defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Guangzhou Evergrande FC scores more
62%
level
21%
Beijing Renhe scores more
17%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Guangzhou Evergrande FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Beijing Renhe

Guangzhou Evergrande FC beat Beijing Renhe 6-1 in Super League on October 20, 2018.

The match was played at Tianhe Stadium in Guangzhou.