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Beijing Renhe vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC — Super League 2018

Beijing Renhe
Beijing Renhe
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
5/20/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Round 11Fengtai Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Beijing Renhe26%
×Draw23%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beijing Renhe
1.21
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.79

Guangzhou Evergrande FC creates 48% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 68 away

creates per match

Beijing Renhe
1.17
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.84

allows per match

Beijing Renhe
1.73
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.26

finishing

Beijing Renhe+0.00on par
Guangzhou Evergrande FC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beijing Renhe ↓

Guangzhou Evergrande FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Beijing Renhe or draw
49%
Beijing Renhe or Guangzhou Evergrande FC
77%
Draw or Guangzhou Evergrande FC
74%

Winning margin

Beijing Renhe wins by 2+
10%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Beijing Renhe 1+ goals
70%
Beijing Renhe 2+ goals
34%
Beijing Renhe 3+ goals
12%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1+ goals
83%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2+ goals
53%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Beijing Renhe (draw refunded)
34%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beijing Renhe at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.73 · 30 matches

Guangzhou Evergrande FC away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.26 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beijing Renhe attack 1.17 + Guangzhou Evergrande FC defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.21

Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 1.84 + Beijing Renhe defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Beijing Renhe scores more
26%
level
23%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC scores more
51%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Guangzhou Evergrande FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Beijing Renhe vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC

Beijing Renhe beat Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2-0 in Super League on May 20, 2018.

The match was played at Fengtai Sports Center in Beijing.