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Guangxi Lanhang vs Chongqing Tongliang Long — League Two 2022

Guangxi Lanhang
Guangxi Lanhang
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Chongqing Tongliang Long
Chongqing Tongliang Long
8/5/2023League TwoLeague Two · Round 14Liuzhou Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Guangxi Lanhang15%
×Draw22%
Chongqing Tongliang Long63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guangxi Lanhang
0.81
Chongqing Tongliang Long
1.90

Chongqing Tongliang Long creates 135% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 11 away

creates per match

Guangxi Lanhang
0.80
Chongqing Tongliang Long
2.09

allows per match

Guangxi Lanhang
1.70
Chongqing Tongliang Long
0.82

finishing

Guangxi Lanhang+0.00on par
Chongqing Tongliang Long+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guangxi Lanhang ↓

Chongqing Tongliang Long →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–113%
0–212%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Guangxi Lanhang or draw
37%
Guangxi Lanhang or Chongqing Tongliang Long
78%
Draw or Chongqing Tongliang Long
85%

Winning margin

Guangxi Lanhang wins by 2+
5%
Chongqing Tongliang Long wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

Guangxi Lanhang 1+ goals
56%
Guangxi Lanhang 2+ goals
19%
Guangxi Lanhang 3+ goals
5%
Chongqing Tongliang Long 1+ goals
85%
Chongqing Tongliang Long 2+ goals
56%
Chongqing Tongliang Long 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Guangxi Lanhang (draw refunded)
20%
Chongqing Tongliang Long (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guangxi Lanhang at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.70 · 40 matches

Chongqing Tongliang Long away — creates 2.09, concedes 0.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guangxi Lanhang attack 0.80 + Chongqing Tongliang Long defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.81

Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 2.09 + Guangxi Lanhang defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Guangxi Lanhang scores more
15%
level
22%
Chongqing Tongliang Long scores more
63%

Chongqing Tongliang Long at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Chongqing Tongliang Long will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Guangxi Lanhang 1–1 Chongqing Tongliang Long

Guangxi Lanhang and Chongqing Tongliang Long drew 1-1 in League Two on August 5, 2023.

The match was played at Liuzhou Sports Center Stadium in Liuzhou.