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Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Guangxi Lanhang — League Two 2022

Chongqing Tongliang Long
Chongqing Tongliang Long
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Guangxi Lanhang
Guangxi Lanhang
6/18/2023League TwoLeague Two · Round 7Tongliang Long Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Chongqing Tongliang Long67%
×Draw21%
Guangxi Lanhang12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chongqing Tongliang Long
1.93
Guangxi Lanhang
0.67

Chongqing Tongliang Long creates 188% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 40 away

creates per match

Chongqing Tongliang Long
2.36
Guangxi Lanhang
0.88

allows per match

Chongqing Tongliang Long
0.45
Guangxi Lanhang
1.50

finishing

Chongqing Tongliang Long+0.00on par
Guangxi Lanhang+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chongqing Tongliang Long ↓

Guangxi Lanhang →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Chongqing Tongliang Long or draw
88%
Chongqing Tongliang Long or Guangxi Lanhang
79%
Draw or Guangxi Lanhang
33%

Winning margin

Chongqing Tongliang Long wins by 2+
41%
Guangxi Lanhang wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Chongqing Tongliang Long 1+ goals
85%
Chongqing Tongliang Long 2+ goals
57%
Chongqing Tongliang Long 3+ goals
30%
Guangxi Lanhang 1+ goals
49%
Guangxi Lanhang 2+ goals
15%
Guangxi Lanhang 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Chongqing Tongliang Long (draw refunded)
85%
Guangxi Lanhang (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chongqing Tongliang Long at home — creates 2.36, concedes 0.45 · 11 matches

Guangxi Lanhang away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.50 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 2.36 + Guangxi Lanhang defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.93

Guangxi Lanhang attack 0.88 + Chongqing Tongliang Long defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Chongqing Tongliang Long scores more
67%
level
21%
Guangxi Lanhang scores more
12%

Chongqing Tongliang Long at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Chongqing Tongliang Long will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Chongqing Tongliang Long 2–0 Guangxi Lanhang

Chongqing Tongliang Long beat Guangxi Lanhang 2-0 in League Two on June 18, 2023.

The match was played at Tongliang Long Stadium in Chongqing.