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Guanabara City U20 vs Atlético GO U20 — Goiano U20 2024

Guanabara City U20
Guanabara City U20advanced
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Atlético GO U20
Atlético GO U20
5/17/2024Goiano U20Goiano U20 · Quarter-finalsEstadio Ferreira Pacheco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Guanabara City U2043%
×Draw27%
Atlético GO U2030%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guanabara City U20
1.38
Atlético GO U20
1.10

Guanabara City U20 creates 25% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 20 away

creates per match

Guanabara City U20
1.50
Atlético GO U20
1.30

allows per match

Guanabara City U20
0.90
Atlético GO U20
1.25

finishing

Guanabara City U20+0.00on par
Atlético GO U20+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guanabara City U20 ↓

Atlético GO U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Guanabara City U20 or draw
70%
Guanabara City U20 or Atlético GO U20
73%
Draw or Atlético GO U20
57%

Winning margin

Guanabara City U20 wins by 2+
20%
Atlético GO U20 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Guanabara City U20 1+ goals
75%
Guanabara City U20 2+ goals
40%
Guanabara City U20 3+ goals
16%
Atlético GO U20 1+ goals
67%
Atlético GO U20 2+ goals
30%
Atlético GO U20 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Guanabara City U20 (draw refunded)
59%
Atlético GO U20 (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guanabara City U20 at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.90 · 20 matches

Atlético GO U20 away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.25 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guanabara City U20 attack 1.50 + Atlético GO U20 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.38

Atlético GO U20 attack 1.30 + Guanabara City U20 defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Guanabara City U20 scores more
43%
level
27%
Atlético GO U20 scores more
30%

Guanabara City U20 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Guanabara City U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Goiano U20: Guanabara City U20 2–1 Atlético GO U20

Guanabara City U20 beat Atlético GO U20 2-1 in Goiano U20 on May 17, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Ferreira Pacheco in Goiânia, Goiás.