Atlético GO U20 2–1 Guanabara City U20

Atlético GO U20

Pens

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Guanabara City U20

5/25/2024

Goiano U20 · Quarter-finalsEstadio Ferreira Pacheco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Atlético GO U2048%

×Draw24%

Guanabara City U2028%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético GO U20Expected goals in this matchGuanabara City U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.25

Atlético GO U20

1.69

Guanabara City U20

1.25

Atlético GO U20 creates 35% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 22 away

2.05

creates per match

1.36

1.14

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Atlético GO U20

2.05

Guanabara City U20

1.36

allows per match

Atlético GO U20

1.14

Guanabara City U20

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético GO U20+0.00on par

Guanabara City U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético GO U20 ↓

Guanabara City U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Atlético GO U20 or draw

72%

Atlético GO U20 or Guanabara City U20

76%

Draw or Guanabara City U20

52%

Winning margin

Atlético GO U20 wins by 2+

25%

Guanabara City U20 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Atlético GO U20 1+ goals

82%

Atlético GO U20 2+ goals

50%

Atlético GO U20 3+ goals

24%

Guanabara City U20 1+ goals

71%

Guanabara City U20 2+ goals

36%

Guanabara City U20 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Atlético GO U20 (draw refunded)

63%

Guanabara City U20 (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético GO U20 at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.14 · 22 matches

Guanabara City U20 away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.32 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético GO U20 attack 2.05 + Guanabara City U20 defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.69

Guanabara City U20 attack 1.36 + Atlético GO U20 defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Atlético GO U20 scores more

48%

level

24%

Guanabara City U20 scores more

28%

Atlético GO U20 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Atlético GO U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff