Gualaceo SC 1–1 Deportivo Cuenca: Result & Stats

Gualaceo SC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Deportivo Cuenca

J. Vergés 70' (pen)

D. Ávila 88'

9/30/2023

Liga Pro · 2nd Round - 8Estadio Municipal Jorge Andrade Cantos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Gualaceo SC41%

×Draw27%

Deportivo Cuenca33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gualaceo SCExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Cuenca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.18

Gualaceo SC

1.35

Deportivo Cuenca

1.18

Gualaceo SC creates 14% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 131 away

1.20

creates per match

0.85

1.50

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Gualaceo SC

1.20

Deportivo Cuenca

0.85

allows per match

Gualaceo SC

1.50

Deportivo Cuenca

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gualaceo SC+0.00on par

Deportivo Cuenca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gualaceo SC ↓

Deportivo Cuenca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Gualaceo SC or draw

67%

Gualaceo SC or Deportivo Cuenca

73%

Draw or Deportivo Cuenca

59%

Winning margin

Gualaceo SC wins by 2+

19%

Deportivo Cuenca wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Gualaceo SC 1+ goals

74%

Gualaceo SC 2+ goals

39%

Gualaceo SC 3+ goals

15%

Deportivo Cuenca 1+ goals

69%

Deportivo Cuenca 2+ goals

33%

Deportivo Cuenca 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Gualaceo SC (draw refunded)

55%

Deportivo Cuenca (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gualaceo SC at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.50 · 30 matches

Deportivo Cuenca away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.50 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gualaceo SC attack 1.20 + Deportivo Cuenca defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.35

Deportivo Cuenca attack 0.85 + Gualaceo SC defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Gualaceo SC scores more

41%

level

27%

Deportivo Cuenca scores more

33%

Gualaceo SC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Gualaceo SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

E. Mesa

Gualaceo SC · D

7.5

Match Events

9'

9'

20'

29'

32'

55'

60'

62'

D. Ávila← L. Mancinelli

63'

J. Almeida← R. Farías

64'

D. Villalba← M. Núñez

70'

J. VergésPenalty

79'

L. Arroyo← N. Dávila

80'

J. J. Almeida Marquez

84'

B. Torres← E. Mesa

84'

S. Morocho← J. Vergés

88'

90+1'

90+2'

90+2'

90+4'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GualaceoDeportivo

Overview

46%Possession54%

11Total Shots5

5Corners3

11Fouls13

Shots

11Total Shots5

2On Target1

5Off Target4

4Blocked0

4Inside Box3

7Outside Box2

Passing

46%Possession54%

280Total Passes338

192Accurate Passes233

69%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls13

4Yellow Cards5

0Offsides1