Deportivo Cuenca 1–2 Gualaceo SC: Result & Stats

Deportivo Cuenca

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Gualaceo SC

E. López 87'

J. Vergés 65' (pen)

B. Angulo 1'

4/29/2023

Liga Pro · 1st Round - 8Estadio Alejandro Serrano Aguilar Banco del Austro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Deportivo Cuenca57%

×Draw24%

Gualaceo SC19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo CuencaExpected goals in this matchGualaceo SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

0.85

Deportivo Cuenca

1.67

Gualaceo SC

0.85

Deportivo Cuenca creates 96% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 30 away

1.54

creates per match

0.60

1.11

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Deportivo Cuenca

1.54

Gualaceo SC

0.60

allows per match

Deportivo Cuenca

1.11

Gualaceo SC

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Cuenca+0.00on par

Gualaceo SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cuenca ↓

Gualaceo SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Deportivo Cuenca or draw

81%

Deportivo Cuenca or Gualaceo SC

76%

Draw or Gualaceo SC

43%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cuenca wins by 2+

31%

Gualaceo SC wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Deportivo Cuenca 1+ goals

81%

Deportivo Cuenca 2+ goals

50%

Deportivo Cuenca 3+ goals

23%

Gualaceo SC 1+ goals

57%

Gualaceo SC 2+ goals

21%

Gualaceo SC 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cuenca (draw refunded)

75%

Gualaceo SC (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cuenca at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.11 · 132 matches

Gualaceo SC away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.80 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cuenca attack 1.54 + Gualaceo SC defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.67

Gualaceo SC attack 0.60 + Deportivo Cuenca defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Deportivo Cuenca scores more

57%

level

24%

Gualaceo SC scores more

19%

Deportivo Cuenca at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Deportivo Cuenca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

B. Angulo↳ J. Vergés

5'

Jhon Ontaneda

14'

Bruno Duarte

32'

Federico Jesus Flores

45+2'

52'

61'

62'

63'

65'

J. VergésPenalty

66'

C. Sención← S. Morocho

69'

Byron Andres Torres Mina

73'

H. Patta← B. Angulo

73'

V. Angulo← O. García

75'

Joaquin Verges

75'

D. Enríquez← J. Vergés

76'

O. Ndong← A. Campas

78'

J. Almeida← V. Branda

87'

E. López↳ S. López

Possession

Shots

Statistics

DeportivoGualaceo

Overview

54%Possession46%

8Total Shots10

8Corners4

7Fouls7

Shots

8Total Shots10

3On Target5

5Off Target4

Passing

54%Possession46%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

7Fouls7

3Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards0