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Gualaceo SC vs Delfin SC — Liga Pro 2026

Gualaceo SC
Gualaceo SC
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Delfin SC
Delfin SC
11/4/2023Liga ProLiga Pro · 2nd Round - 12Estadio Alejandro Serrano Aguilar Banco del Austro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Gualaceo SC42%
×Draw26%
Delfin SC32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gualaceo SC
1.44
Delfin SC
1.23

Gualaceo SC creates 17% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 133 away

creates per match

Gualaceo SC
1.20
Delfin SC
0.95

allows per match

Gualaceo SC
1.50
Delfin SC
1.67

finishing

Gualaceo SC+0.00on par
Delfin SC+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gualaceo SC ↓

Delfin SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Gualaceo SC or draw
68%
Gualaceo SC or Delfin SC
74%
Draw or Delfin SC
58%

Winning margin

Gualaceo SC wins by 2+
20%
Delfin SC wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Gualaceo SC 1+ goals
76%
Gualaceo SC 2+ goals
42%
Gualaceo SC 3+ goals
18%
Delfin SC 1+ goals
71%
Delfin SC 2+ goals
35%
Delfin SC 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Gualaceo SC (draw refunded)
57%
Delfin SC (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gualaceo SC at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.50 · 30 matches

Delfin SC away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.67 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gualaceo SC attack 1.20 + Delfin SC defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.44

Delfin SC attack 0.95 + Gualaceo SC defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Gualaceo SC scores more
42%
level
26%
Delfin SC scores more
32%

Gualaceo SC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Gualaceo SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro: Gualaceo SC 2–2 Delfin SC

Gualaceo SC and Delfin SC drew 2-2 in Liga Pro on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Alejandro Serrano Aguilar Banco del Austro in Cuenca.