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Delfin SC vs Gualaceo SC — Liga Pro 2026

Delfin SC
Delfin SC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Gualaceo SC
Gualaceo SC
5/21/2022Liga ProLiga Pro · 1st Round - 14Estadio Jocay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Delfin SC56%
×Draw25%
Gualaceo SC19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Delfin SC
1.59
Gualaceo SC
0.80

Delfin SC creates 99% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 30 away

creates per match

Delfin SC
1.38
Gualaceo SC
0.60

allows per match

Delfin SC
1.00
Gualaceo SC
1.80

finishing

Delfin SC+0.00on par
Gualaceo SC+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Delfin SC ↓

Gualaceo SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Delfin SC or draw
81%
Delfin SC or Gualaceo SC
75%
Draw or Gualaceo SC
44%

Winning margin

Delfin SC wins by 2+
30%
Gualaceo SC wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Delfin SC 1+ goals
80%
Delfin SC 2+ goals
47%
Delfin SC 3+ goals
21%
Gualaceo SC 1+ goals
55%
Gualaceo SC 2+ goals
19%
Gualaceo SC 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Delfin SC (draw refunded)
75%
Gualaceo SC (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Delfin SC at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.00 · 133 matches

Gualaceo SC away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.80 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Delfin SC attack 1.38 + Gualaceo SC defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.59

Gualaceo SC attack 0.60 + Delfin SC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Delfin SC scores more
56%
level
25%
Gualaceo SC scores more
19%

Delfin SC at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Delfin SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Delfin SC vs Gualaceo SC

Delfin SC beat Gualaceo SC 1-0 in Liga Pro on May 21, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Jocay in Manta.