Gualaceo SC 1–1 CD Olmedo: Result & Stats

Gualaceo SC

FT

1 – 1

CD Olmedo

8/26/2018

Liga Pro Serie B · Round 28Estadio Gerardo León Pozo (Gualaceo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Gualaceo SC40%

×Draw30%

CD Olmedo29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gualaceo SCExpected goals in this matchCD Olmedo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

0.91

Gualaceo SC

1.12

CD Olmedo

0.91

Gualaceo SC creates 23% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 42 away

1.17

creates per match

1.02

0.79

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Gualaceo SC

1.17

CD Olmedo

1.02

allows per match

Gualaceo SC

0.79

CD Olmedo

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gualaceo SC+0.00on par

CD Olmedo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gualaceo SC ↓

CD Olmedo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Gualaceo SC or draw

71%

Gualaceo SC or CD Olmedo

70%

Draw or CD Olmedo

60%

Winning margin

Gualaceo SC wins by 2+

17%

CD Olmedo wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Gualaceo SC 1+ goals

67%

Gualaceo SC 2+ goals

31%

Gualaceo SC 3+ goals

10%

CD Olmedo 1+ goals

60%

CD Olmedo 2+ goals

23%

CD Olmedo 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Gualaceo SC (draw refunded)

58%

CD Olmedo (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gualaceo SC at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.79 · 111 matches

CD Olmedo away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.07 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gualaceo SC attack 1.17 + CD Olmedo defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.12

CD Olmedo attack 1.02 + Gualaceo SC defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Gualaceo SC scores more

40%

level

30%

CD Olmedo scores more

29%

Gualaceo SC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Gualaceo SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff