CD Olmedo 1–0 Gualaceo SC: Result & Stats

CD Olmedo

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Gualaceo SC

3/11/2018

Liga Pro Serie B · Round 2Estadio Olímpico de Riobamba (Riobamba)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

CD Olmedo44%

×Draw28%

Gualaceo SC28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CD OlmedoExpected goals in this matchGualaceo SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.00

CD Olmedo

1.33

Gualaceo SC

1.00

CD Olmedo creates 33% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 110 away

1.32

creates per match

0.82

1.18

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

CD Olmedo

1.32

Gualaceo SC

0.82

allows per match

CD Olmedo

1.18

Gualaceo SC

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CD Olmedo+0.00on par

Gualaceo SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CD Olmedo ↓

Gualaceo SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

CD Olmedo or draw

72%

CD Olmedo or Gualaceo SC

72%

Draw or Gualaceo SC

56%

Winning margin

CD Olmedo wins by 2+

21%

Gualaceo SC wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

CD Olmedo 1+ goals

74%

CD Olmedo 2+ goals

38%

CD Olmedo 3+ goals

15%

Gualaceo SC 1+ goals

63%

Gualaceo SC 2+ goals

26%

Gualaceo SC 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

CD Olmedo (draw refunded)

61%

Gualaceo SC (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CD Olmedo at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.18 · 40 matches

Gualaceo SC away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.35 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CD Olmedo attack 1.32 + Gualaceo SC defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.33

Gualaceo SC attack 0.82 + CD Olmedo defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

CD Olmedo scores more

44%

level

28%

Gualaceo SC scores more

28%

CD Olmedo at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "CD Olmedo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff