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Guairena FC vs Atlético Colegiales — Division Intermedia 2018

Guairena FC
Guairena FC
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Atlético Colegiales
Atlético Colegiales
7/29/2024Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 18Estadio Parque del Guairá

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Guairena FC59%
×Draw23%
Atlético Colegiales19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guairena FC
1.82
Atlético Colegiales
0.91

Guairena FC creates 100% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 44 away

creates per match

Guairena FC
1.60
Atlético Colegiales
0.98

allows per match

Guairena FC
0.84
Atlético Colegiales
2.05

finishing

Guairena FC+0.00on par
Atlético Colegiales+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guairena FC ↓

Atlético Colegiales →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Guairena FC or draw
81%
Guairena FC or Atlético Colegiales
77%
Draw or Atlético Colegiales
41%

Winning margin

Guairena FC wins by 2+
34%
Atlético Colegiales wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Guairena FC 1+ goals
84%
Guairena FC 2+ goals
54%
Guairena FC 3+ goals
27%
Atlético Colegiales 1+ goals
60%
Atlético Colegiales 2+ goals
23%
Atlético Colegiales 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Guairena FC (draw refunded)
76%
Atlético Colegiales (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guairena FC at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.84 · 68 matches

Atlético Colegiales away — creates 0.98, concedes 2.05 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guairena FC attack 1.60 + Atlético Colegiales defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.82

Atlético Colegiales attack 0.98 + Guairena FC defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Guairena FC scores more
59%
level
23%
Atlético Colegiales scores more
19%

Guairena FC at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Guairena FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Intermedia: Guairena FC 3–0 Atlético Colegiales

Guairena FC beat Atlético Colegiales 3-0 in Division Intermedia on July 29, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Parque del Guairá in Villarrica.