Atlético Colegiales 0–1 Guairena FC: Result & Stats

Atlético Colegiales

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Guairena FC

4/20/2024

Division Intermedia · Round 3Estadio Prof. Luciano Zacarías

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Atlético Colegiales31%

×Draw29%

Guairena FC41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético ColegialesExpected goals in this matchGuairena FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.23

Atlético Colegiales

1.02

Guairena FC

1.23

Guairena FC creates 21% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 66 away

0.96

creates per match

0.98

1.47

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Atlético Colegiales

0.96

Guairena FC

0.98

allows per match

Atlético Colegiales

1.47

Guairena FC

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Colegiales+0.00on par

Guairena FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Colegiales ↓

Guairena FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Atlético Colegiales or draw

59%

Atlético Colegiales or Guairena FC

71%

Draw or Guairena FC

69%

Winning margin

Atlético Colegiales wins by 2+

11%

Guairena FC wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Atlético Colegiales 1+ goals

64%

Atlético Colegiales 2+ goals

27%

Atlético Colegiales 3+ goals

8%

Guairena FC 1+ goals

71%

Guairena FC 2+ goals

35%

Guairena FC 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Atlético Colegiales (draw refunded)

43%

Guairena FC (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Colegiales at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.47 · 45 matches

Guairena FC away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.08 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Colegiales attack 0.96 + Guairena FC defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.02

Guairena FC attack 0.98 + Atlético Colegiales defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Atlético Colegiales scores more

31%

level

29%

Guairena FC scores more

41%

Guairena FC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Guairena FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff