Guairena FC 1–2 3 de Febrero: Result & Stats

Guairena FC

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

3 de Febrero

4/29/2024

Division Intermedia · Round 4Estadio Parque del Guairá

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Guairena FC49%

×Draw27%

3 de Febrero24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guairena FCExpected goals in this match3 de Febrero

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.94

Guairena FC

1.46

3 de Febrero

0.94

Guairena FC creates 55% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 78 away

1.60

creates per match

1.03

0.84

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Guairena FC

1.60

3 de Febrero

1.03

allows per match

Guairena FC

0.84

3 de Febrero

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guairena FC+0.00on par

3 de Febrero+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guairena FC ↓

3 de Febrero →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Guairena FC or draw

76%

Guairena FC or 3 de Febrero

73%

Draw or 3 de Febrero

51%

Winning margin

Guairena FC wins by 2+

24%

3 de Febrero wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Guairena FC 1+ goals

77%

Guairena FC 2+ goals

43%

Guairena FC 3+ goals

18%

3 de Febrero 1+ goals

61%

3 de Febrero 2+ goals

24%

3 de Febrero 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Guairena FC (draw refunded)

67%

3 de Febrero (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guairena FC at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.84 · 68 matches

3 de Febrero away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.32 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guairena FC attack 1.60 + 3 de Febrero defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.46

3 de Febrero attack 1.03 + Guairena FC defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Guairena FC scores more

49%

level

27%

3 de Febrero scores more

24%

Guairena FC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Guairena FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff