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3 de Febrero vs Guairena FC — Division Intermedia 2018

3 de Febrero
3 de Febrero
FT
2 – 0
Guairena FC
Guairena FC
5/5/2019Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 2Estadio Antonio Aranda (Ciudad del Este)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

3 de Febrero37%
×Draw28%
Guairena FC34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3 de Febrero
1.18
Guairena FC
1.12

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 78 home / 66 away

creates per match

3 de Febrero
1.28
Guairena FC
0.98

allows per match

3 de Febrero
1.26
Guairena FC
1.08

finishing

3 de Febrero+0.00on par
Guairena FC+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

3 de Febrero ↓

Guairena FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

3 de Febrero or draw
66%
3 de Febrero or Guairena FC
72%
Draw or Guairena FC
63%

Winning margin

3 de Febrero wins by 2+
16%
Guairena FC wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

3 de Febrero 1+ goals
69%
3 de Febrero 2+ goals
33%
3 de Febrero 3+ goals
12%
Guairena FC 1+ goals
67%
Guairena FC 2+ goals
31%
Guairena FC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

3 de Febrero (draw refunded)
52%
Guairena FC (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

3 de Febrero at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.26 · 78 matches

Guairena FC away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.08 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

3 de Febrero attack 1.28 + Guairena FC defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.18

Guairena FC attack 0.98 + 3 de Febrero defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

3 de Febrero scores more
37%
level
28%
Guairena FC scores more
34%

3 de Febrero at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "3 de Febrero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Intermedia: 3 de Febrero 2–0 Guairena FC

3 de Febrero beat Guairena FC 2-0 in Division Intermedia on May 5, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Antonio Aranda (Ciudad del Este).