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Guadalupe FC vs Escorpiones Belén — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Guadalupe FC
Guadalupe FC
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Escorpiones Belén
Escorpiones Belén
8/13/2024Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - 2Estadio CDI José Joaquín Colleya Fonseca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Guadalupe FC44%
×Draw24%
Escorpiones Belén32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guadalupe FC
1.63
Escorpiones Belén
1.35

Guadalupe FC creates 21% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 87 away

creates per match

Guadalupe FC
1.74
Escorpiones Belén
1.60

allows per match

Guadalupe FC
1.10
Escorpiones Belén
1.51

finishing

Guadalupe FC+0.00on par
Escorpiones Belén+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guadalupe FC ↓

Escorpiones Belén →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Guadalupe FC or draw
68%
Guadalupe FC or Escorpiones Belén
76%
Draw or Escorpiones Belén
56%

Winning margin

Guadalupe FC wins by 2+
23%
Escorpiones Belén wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Guadalupe FC 1+ goals
80%
Guadalupe FC 2+ goals
48%
Guadalupe FC 3+ goals
22%
Escorpiones Belén 1+ goals
74%
Escorpiones Belén 2+ goals
39%
Escorpiones Belén 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Guadalupe FC (draw refunded)
58%
Escorpiones Belén (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guadalupe FC at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.10 · 39 matches

Escorpiones Belén away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.51 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guadalupe FC attack 1.74 + Escorpiones Belén defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.63

Escorpiones Belén attack 1.60 + Guadalupe FC defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Guadalupe FC scores more
44%
level
24%
Escorpiones Belén scores more
32%

Guadalupe FC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Guadalupe FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Ascenso: Guadalupe FC 4–1 Escorpiones Belén

Guadalupe FC beat Escorpiones Belén 4-1 in Liga de Ascenso on August 13, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio CDI José Joaquín Colleya Fonseca in San José.