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Escorpiones Belén vs Guadalupe FC — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Escorpiones Belén
Escorpiones Belén
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Guadalupe FC
Guadalupe FC
1/26/2025Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - 2Polideportivo de Bélen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Escorpiones Belén44%
×Draw23%
Guadalupe FC34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Escorpiones Belén
1.82
Guadalupe FC
1.58

Escorpiones Belén creates 15% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 37 away

creates per match

Escorpiones Belén
2.37
Guadalupe FC
1.65

allows per match

Escorpiones Belén
1.52
Guadalupe FC
1.27

finishing

Escorpiones Belén+0.00on par
Guadalupe FC+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Escorpiones Belén ↓

Guadalupe FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Escorpiones Belén or draw
66%
Escorpiones Belén or Guadalupe FC
77%
Draw or Guadalupe FC
56%

Winning margin

Escorpiones Belén wins by 2+
23%
Guadalupe FC wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Escorpiones Belén 1+ goals
84%
Escorpiones Belén 2+ goals
54%
Escorpiones Belén 3+ goals
27%
Guadalupe FC 1+ goals
79%
Guadalupe FC 2+ goals
47%
Guadalupe FC 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Escorpiones Belén (draw refunded)
56%
Guadalupe FC (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Escorpiones Belén at home — creates 2.37, concedes 1.52 · 86 matches

Guadalupe FC away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.27 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Escorpiones Belén attack 2.37 + Guadalupe FC defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.82

Guadalupe FC attack 1.65 + Escorpiones Belén defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Escorpiones Belén scores more
44%
level
23%
Guadalupe FC scores more
34%

Escorpiones Belén at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Escorpiones Belén will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Escorpiones Belén vs Guadalupe FC

Escorpiones Belén beat Guadalupe FC 4-0 in Liga de Ascenso on January 26, 2025.

The match was played at Polideportivo de Bélen in San Antonio de Belén.