Guadalupe FC 0–0 Cariari Pococi: Result & Stats

Guadalupe FC

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Cariari Pococi

3/21/2025

Liga de Ascenso · Clausura - 13Estadio Ernesto Rohrmoser Lahmann

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Guadalupe FC51%

×Draw23%

Cariari Pococi25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guadalupe FCExpected goals in this matchCariari Pococi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.17

Guadalupe FC

1.77

Cariari Pococi

1.17

Guadalupe FC creates 51% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 107 away

1.74

creates per match

1.23

1.10

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Guadalupe FC

1.74

Cariari Pococi

1.23

allows per match

Guadalupe FC

1.10

Cariari Pococi

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guadalupe FC+0.00on par

Cariari Pococi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guadalupe FC ↓

Cariari Pococi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Guadalupe FC or draw

75%

Guadalupe FC or Cariari Pococi

77%

Draw or Cariari Pococi

49%

Winning margin

Guadalupe FC wins by 2+

28%

Cariari Pococi wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Guadalupe FC 1+ goals

83%

Guadalupe FC 2+ goals

53%

Guadalupe FC 3+ goals

26%

Cariari Pococi 1+ goals

69%

Cariari Pococi 2+ goals

33%

Cariari Pococi 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Guadalupe FC (draw refunded)

67%

Cariari Pococi (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guadalupe FC at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.10 · 39 matches

Cariari Pococi away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.80 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guadalupe FC attack 1.74 + Cariari Pococi defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.77

Cariari Pococi attack 1.23 + Guadalupe FC defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Guadalupe FC scores more

51%

level

23%

Cariari Pococi scores more

25%

Guadalupe FC at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Guadalupe FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff