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Cariari Pococi vs Guadalupe FC — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Cariari Pococi
Cariari Pococi
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Guadalupe FC
Guadalupe FC
2/6/2025Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - 4Estadio Comunal Bernardo Veach

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Cariari Pococi37%
×Draw24%
Guadalupe FC39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cariari Pococi
1.48
Guadalupe FC
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 108 home / 37 away

creates per match

Cariari Pococi
1.68
Guadalupe FC
1.65

allows per match

Cariari Pococi
1.40
Guadalupe FC
1.27

finishing

Cariari Pococi+0.00on par
Guadalupe FC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cariari Pococi ↓

Guadalupe FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Cariari Pococi or draw
61%
Cariari Pococi or Guadalupe FC
76%
Draw or Guadalupe FC
63%

Winning margin

Cariari Pococi wins by 2+
18%
Guadalupe FC wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Cariari Pococi 1+ goals
77%
Cariari Pococi 2+ goals
43%
Cariari Pococi 3+ goals
19%
Guadalupe FC 1+ goals
78%
Guadalupe FC 2+ goals
45%
Guadalupe FC 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Cariari Pococi (draw refunded)
49%
Guadalupe FC (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cariari Pococi at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.40 · 108 matches

Guadalupe FC away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.27 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cariari Pococi attack 1.68 + Guadalupe FC defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.48

Guadalupe FC attack 1.65 + Cariari Pococi defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Cariari Pococi scores more
37%
level
24%
Guadalupe FC scores more
39%

Guadalupe FC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Guadalupe FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cariari Pococi vs Guadalupe FC

Cariari Pococi beat Guadalupe FC 3-1 in Liga de Ascenso on February 6, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Comunal Bernardo Veach in Cariari.