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Guadalupe FC vs Antioquia — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Guadalupe FC
Guadalupe FC
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Antioquia
Antioquia
9/29/2024Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - 12Estadio CDI José Joaquín Colleya Fonseca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Guadalupe FC54%
×Draw23%
Antioquia23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guadalupe FC
1.84
Antioquia
1.13

Guadalupe FC creates 63% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 32 away

creates per match

Guadalupe FC
1.74
Antioquia
1.16

allows per match

Guadalupe FC
1.10
Antioquia
1.94

finishing

Guadalupe FC+0.00on par
Antioquia+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guadalupe FC ↓

Antioquia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Guadalupe FC or draw
77%
Guadalupe FC or Antioquia
77%
Draw or Antioquia
46%

Winning margin

Guadalupe FC wins by 2+
30%
Antioquia wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Guadalupe FC 1+ goals
84%
Guadalupe FC 2+ goals
55%
Guadalupe FC 3+ goals
28%
Antioquia 1+ goals
68%
Antioquia 2+ goals
31%
Antioquia 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Guadalupe FC (draw refunded)
70%
Antioquia (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guadalupe FC at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.10 · 39 matches

Antioquia away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.94 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guadalupe FC attack 1.74 + Antioquia defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.84

Antioquia attack 1.16 + Guadalupe FC defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Guadalupe FC scores more
54%
level
23%
Antioquia scores more
23%

Guadalupe FC at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Guadalupe FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Ascenso: Guadalupe FC 4–0 Antioquia

Guadalupe FC beat Antioquia 4-0 in Liga de Ascenso on September 29, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio CDI José Joaquín Colleya Fonseca in San José.