Antioquia 0–1 Guadalupe FC: Result & Stats

Antioquia

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Guadalupe FC

3/17/2025

Liga de Ascenso · Clausura - 12Estadio Ernesto Rohrmoser Lahmann

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Antioquia32%

×Draw24%

Guadalupe FC44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AntioquiaExpected goals in this matchGuadalupe FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.64

Antioquia

1.37

Guadalupe FC

1.64

Guadalupe FC creates 20% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 37 away

1.47

creates per match

1.65

1.63

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Antioquia

1.47

Guadalupe FC

1.65

allows per match

Antioquia

1.63

Guadalupe FC

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Antioquia+0.00on par

Guadalupe FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Antioquia ↓

Guadalupe FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Antioquia or draw

56%

Antioquia or Guadalupe FC

76%

Draw or Guadalupe FC

68%

Winning margin

Antioquia wins by 2+

14%

Guadalupe FC wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Antioquia 1+ goals

75%

Antioquia 2+ goals

40%

Antioquia 3+ goals

16%

Guadalupe FC 1+ goals

81%

Guadalupe FC 2+ goals

49%

Guadalupe FC 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Antioquia (draw refunded)

42%

Guadalupe FC (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Antioquia at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.63 · 32 matches

Guadalupe FC away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.27 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Antioquia attack 1.47 + Guadalupe FC defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.37

Guadalupe FC attack 1.65 + Antioquia defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Antioquia scores more

32%

level

24%

Guadalupe FC scores more

44%

Guadalupe FC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Guadalupe FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff