Guadalupe FC 0–0 ADR Jicaral: Result & Stats

Guadalupe FC

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

ADR Jicaral

12/24/2024

Liga de Ascenso · Apertura - FinalsEstadio CDI José Joaquín Colleya Fonseca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Guadalupe FC41%

×Draw26%

ADR Jicaral33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guadalupe FCExpected goals in this matchADR Jicaral

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.22

Guadalupe FC

1.41

ADR Jicaral

1.22

Guadalupe FC creates 16% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 96 away

1.74

creates per match

1.34

1.10

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Guadalupe FC

1.74

ADR Jicaral

1.34

allows per match

Guadalupe FC

1.10

ADR Jicaral

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guadalupe FC+0.00on par

ADR Jicaral+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guadalupe FC ↓

ADR Jicaral →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Guadalupe FC or draw

67%

Guadalupe FC or ADR Jicaral

74%

Draw or ADR Jicaral

59%

Winning margin

Guadalupe FC wins by 2+

20%

ADR Jicaral wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Guadalupe FC 1+ goals

76%

Guadalupe FC 2+ goals

41%

Guadalupe FC 3+ goals

17%

ADR Jicaral 1+ goals

70%

ADR Jicaral 2+ goals

34%

ADR Jicaral 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Guadalupe FC (draw refunded)

56%

ADR Jicaral (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guadalupe FC at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.10 · 39 matches

ADR Jicaral away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.07 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guadalupe FC attack 1.74 + ADR Jicaral defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.41

ADR Jicaral attack 1.34 + Guadalupe FC defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Guadalupe FC scores more

41%

level

26%

ADR Jicaral scores more

33%

Guadalupe FC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Guadalupe FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff